NFL Prop Picker

Week 7 · 2026 · stats through Week 6 · updated Oct 21
Floor = safe line (model 75%+ to clear) · Lean = aggressive line (55–75%). Gold box = real DraftKings / Pick6 line with the side we'd take.

How to pick

  1. Start with Floor lines. They hit about 85–86% in backtests.
  2. Lean lines pay more but hit about 65%. Use one or two at most.
  3. The gold box is a real DraftKings Sportsbook or Pick6 line with the side (More/Less) the model likes and its hit %. Prefer 60%+.
  4. Skip cards with a red tag (injury report or weather).
  5. Spread props across games; props from one game move together.
  6. Tap More stats for the game log, usage (targets, snaps, red zone) and the full reasoning.

Sources: nflverse stats/snaps/play-by-play, ESPN schedule, spreads, weather, injuries and DraftKings prop lines, DraftKings Pick6 public page. Lines are never invented.