Week 8 · 2026 · Thu CAR @ GB, 7:15 PM CT through CHI @ SEA (Mon) · stats through Week 7 · updated Oct 26, 9:50 PM CT
Floor = safe line (model 75%+ to clear) · Lean = aggressive line (55–75%). Gold box = Safe DraftKings Predictions N+ rung (highest rung the model gives 75%+) with its price. Picks are ranked by hit probability, never by edge. Lines come only from DK Predictions.
How to pick
Start with Floor lines. They hit about 85–86% in backtests.
Lean lines pay more but hit about 65%. Use one or two at most.
DraftKings Predictions sells N+ ladder contracts (e.g. 260+ pass yds). For each rung, edge = model % minus the YES price %. The gold Safe box is the highest rung the model gives 75%+, with its price. A small long-shot note shows the best-edge rung for info only; never pick by edge alone.
Skip cards with a red tag (injury report or weather).
Green ▲ tags: Trending up (carries/targets last 3 games clearly above season baseline, boost capped at +8%) and Freed role (same-position teammate with real usage is OUT, +6%). Within each star tier, cards are ranked by usage (snap % × best of target, carry and red-zone share), then Floor %.
Spread props across games; props from one game move together.
Tap More stats for the game log, usage (targets, snaps, red zone) and the full reasoning.
Sources: nflverse stats/snaps/play-by-play, ESPN schedule, spreads, weather and injuries. All lines and prices: DraftKings Predictions (predictions.draftkings.com, read in a browser). No sportsbook lines are used; lines are never invented.